Tuesday 28 June

The market closed about 0.3% up Nifty @ 5542 (up 15) and Sensex 18484 (up 71).

So continuous 6 trading sessions market has closed higher - sensex from 17506 (on Monday 20/6) to 18484 - UP 978 points and Nifty from 5257 to 5542 UP 285.

Except last Friday increase of 500 points sensex or 150 points Nifty - the market has been fairly flat.
Yesterdays rise of  1% - sensex 180 points and Nifty 55 were more due to the price increase of all the oil marketing companies consequent upon the increase in the admin price of diesel & kerosene.

This increase in price of diesel is not going to reduce the short recovery fully and the govt cutting the excise/customs price on fuel also going to increase the fiscal deficit. Govt prog of disinvestment of 40,000 cr also may not happen without a major shortfall.

a)  the fiscal deficit is more likely to be around 5.4%
b) the inflation in the next few months unlikely to be less than 9% and
c) RBI is still going to increase the rates by another 0.5% in the next 2 months
d) Govt seems to be in some kind of paralysis - with hardly new meaningful action taking place
e) Monsoon - now predicted below normal (may not have major adverse effect) but will certainly dampen the chances of the food prices coming down soon.

So with all the above - one wonders if this run up in the market is precursor to   a major fall ??

Tell  me when is the good time to sell .

Friday 24 June

The market opened with an upside  gap and closed almost 3% up.

Nifty closed @ 5470 up 150 points and Sensex closed @ 18235 up 507 points.

There does not seem to be any particular reason for the up move other than the obvious oversold positions and the sudden buying in all the front line scrips by the institutions.

Good time to get out of the long positions slowly - No sense in buying into this market , as you will get them lot cheaper in a few weeks time. Wait for the Q1 results - expected in the next 3 weeks before making your new buying.

Thursday 23 June

The market opened a bit weak @ 5260 - but steadily gained thru the day and closed @ 5323 up 45 points
and the Sensex closed @ 17734 up 183 points.

During midday the market was above 5330 - but due to profit booking or fresh short sales the market reacted back to 5300 before closing above the psychological level 5320.

The market has now closed a tad above the first resistance 5320.
Tomorrow if the market trades above 5350 for a short while then - its likely that the market go up to around 5400 - mostly on short covering.

Any sharp rally tomorrow would be a good time to unwind any long position.

Monday 20 June 2011

The market decisively fell during the early part of the day - Sensex by over 500 points and Nifty by over 150 points.

Nifty closed @ 5263 (down 102) and Sensex @ 17523 (347).
If there is no recovery back to the level of 5400 and 17800 in the next few days - the long term trend would also seem to be down.

Almost all Nifty scrips were down - Reliance, Tatamotors , Grasim - over 4% down and ITC, Infosys, sesagoa, sterlite TCS down more than 2%.

The apparent reason touted by the experts about the apprehension that Govt was considering the taxing of the investment thru Mauritius - does not seem very logical.
The reason is - the risk averse attitude of most fund managers and the overall macro situation - inflation, interest rates and the policy paralysis of the govt.

Good time to buy selectively with a time frame of 3 to 6 months for a decent appreciation.

Friday 3 June

The market went up to 5608 and then sharply fell off to 5510 and closed @ 5525 (down 25).

Sensex 18495- 18650 - & closed @ 18385 down 108.

market has come down from the resistance of 5600 and has already testing the support around 5500.

Monday if the support of 5480 does not hold then we may see the next support level 5420.

in any case  the upside seems limited - and the down side seems to be 5%  to 10 %.

Thursday 2 June

The market went down by around 0.6% today Nifty ended @ 5550 (down 41) and Sensex @ 18497 (down 111).
Considering the sell offs in US & Europe around 2% and in Asian Markets around 1.5% - the fall in Indian market seems pretty low.
However - the volume for the past few days has been much below average 90000cr against 100000+ crores usually.
If tomorrow the market goes below 5420 then one can expect a further fall of 1-2% till 5350.
This time if 5350 does not hold then - there is likely to be a free fall to 5200 levels next week.

Wait for the correction before buying in to this market. 

Wednesday 1 June

Another positive day for the market today - the market closed @ 18615 (up 112) and Nifty @ 5592 (up 32).

Despite all the bad news around - GDP growth estimates revised downwards to 7.5% for FY 12; the confusion that seems to prevail in the Govt - and almost no proactive action by the govt to get things moving ; Europe still reeling under the Greek Banking crisis ; the public spat between the Govt and Civil Society (Anna Hazare) over the draft of the Lokpal Bill ; New Telecom scam involving another DMK minister (Maran & Sun TV) -
Ok the list is endless.

Good to see the market improving (across almost all good scrips).  Wait & watch - no new buying - despite all the SMS that you receive from the brokers these days. Buy recommendations in the last few days has increased substantially - and many of them have resulted in profits - since the market for the past 4 days seems to be going one way only.