The market closed @ 5652 (down 76) sensex 18832 (down 245)
so for the week the market after just was up 0.4% from 5627 to 5652 (up 25) & sensex from 18762 to 18832 (up 70 points 0.37%).
Q1 result for HDFC was announced Net profit up 22% to 844cr and the share price fell by 2% from 730 to 715.
So what is the expectation for the other major results to be announced next week ??
So it would be interesting to see what the analysts would say during the weekend (they have been predicting 5900 - 6000 levels (sensex 20,000) after the positive moves the last two days .
Friday 8 July 2011
Tuesday 28 June 2011
Tuesday 28 June
The market closed about 0.3% up Nifty @ 5542 (up 15) and Sensex 18484 (up 71).
So continuous 6 trading sessions market has closed higher - sensex from 17506 (on Monday 20/6) to 18484 - UP 978 points and Nifty from 5257 to 5542 UP 285.
Except last Friday increase of 500 points sensex or 150 points Nifty - the market has been fairly flat.
Yesterdays rise of 1% - sensex 180 points and Nifty 55 were more due to the price increase of all the oil marketing companies consequent upon the increase in the admin price of diesel & kerosene.
This increase in price of diesel is not going to reduce the short recovery fully and the govt cutting the excise/customs price on fuel also going to increase the fiscal deficit. Govt prog of disinvestment of 40,000 cr also may not happen without a major shortfall.
a) the fiscal deficit is more likely to be around 5.4%
b) the inflation in the next few months unlikely to be less than 9% and
c) RBI is still going to increase the rates by another 0.5% in the next 2 months
d) Govt seems to be in some kind of paralysis - with hardly new meaningful action taking place
e) Monsoon - now predicted below normal (may not have major adverse effect) but will certainly dampen the chances of the food prices coming down soon.
So with all the above - one wonders if this run up in the market is precursor to a major fall ??
Tell me when is the good time to sell .
So continuous 6 trading sessions market has closed higher - sensex from 17506 (on Monday 20/6) to 18484 - UP 978 points and Nifty from 5257 to 5542 UP 285.
Except last Friday increase of 500 points sensex or 150 points Nifty - the market has been fairly flat.
Yesterdays rise of 1% - sensex 180 points and Nifty 55 were more due to the price increase of all the oil marketing companies consequent upon the increase in the admin price of diesel & kerosene.
This increase in price of diesel is not going to reduce the short recovery fully and the govt cutting the excise/customs price on fuel also going to increase the fiscal deficit. Govt prog of disinvestment of 40,000 cr also may not happen without a major shortfall.
a) the fiscal deficit is more likely to be around 5.4%
b) the inflation in the next few months unlikely to be less than 9% and
c) RBI is still going to increase the rates by another 0.5% in the next 2 months
d) Govt seems to be in some kind of paralysis - with hardly new meaningful action taking place
e) Monsoon - now predicted below normal (may not have major adverse effect) but will certainly dampen the chances of the food prices coming down soon.
So with all the above - one wonders if this run up in the market is precursor to a major fall ??
Tell me when is the good time to sell .
Friday 24 June 2011
Friday 24 June
The market opened with an upside gap and closed almost 3% up.
Nifty closed @ 5470 up 150 points and Sensex closed @ 18235 up 507 points.
There does not seem to be any particular reason for the up move other than the obvious oversold positions and the sudden buying in all the front line scrips by the institutions.
Good time to get out of the long positions slowly - No sense in buying into this market , as you will get them lot cheaper in a few weeks time. Wait for the Q1 results - expected in the next 3 weeks before making your new buying.
Nifty closed @ 5470 up 150 points and Sensex closed @ 18235 up 507 points.
There does not seem to be any particular reason for the up move other than the obvious oversold positions and the sudden buying in all the front line scrips by the institutions.
Good time to get out of the long positions slowly - No sense in buying into this market , as you will get them lot cheaper in a few weeks time. Wait for the Q1 results - expected in the next 3 weeks before making your new buying.
Thursday 23 June 2011
Thursday 23 June
The market opened a bit weak @ 5260 - but steadily gained thru the day and closed @ 5323 up 45 points
and the Sensex closed @ 17734 up 183 points.
During midday the market was above 5330 - but due to profit booking or fresh short sales the market reacted back to 5300 before closing above the psychological level 5320.
The market has now closed a tad above the first resistance 5320.
Tomorrow if the market trades above 5350 for a short while then - its likely that the market go up to around 5400 - mostly on short covering.
Any sharp rally tomorrow would be a good time to unwind any long position.
and the Sensex closed @ 17734 up 183 points.
During midday the market was above 5330 - but due to profit booking or fresh short sales the market reacted back to 5300 before closing above the psychological level 5320.
The market has now closed a tad above the first resistance 5320.
Tomorrow if the market trades above 5350 for a short while then - its likely that the market go up to around 5400 - mostly on short covering.
Any sharp rally tomorrow would be a good time to unwind any long position.
Monday 20 June 2011
Monday 20 June 2011
The market decisively fell during the early part of the day - Sensex by over 500 points and Nifty by over 150 points.
Nifty closed @ 5263 (down 102) and Sensex @ 17523 (347).
If there is no recovery back to the level of 5400 and 17800 in the next few days - the long term trend would also seem to be down.
Almost all Nifty scrips were down - Reliance, Tatamotors , Grasim - over 4% down and ITC, Infosys, sesagoa, sterlite TCS down more than 2%.
The apparent reason touted by the experts about the apprehension that Govt was considering the taxing of the investment thru Mauritius - does not seem very logical.
The reason is - the risk averse attitude of most fund managers and the overall macro situation - inflation, interest rates and the policy paralysis of the govt.
Good time to buy selectively with a time frame of 3 to 6 months for a decent appreciation.
Nifty closed @ 5263 (down 102) and Sensex @ 17523 (347).
If there is no recovery back to the level of 5400 and 17800 in the next few days - the long term trend would also seem to be down.
Almost all Nifty scrips were down - Reliance, Tatamotors , Grasim - over 4% down and ITC, Infosys, sesagoa, sterlite TCS down more than 2%.
The apparent reason touted by the experts about the apprehension that Govt was considering the taxing of the investment thru Mauritius - does not seem very logical.
The reason is - the risk averse attitude of most fund managers and the overall macro situation - inflation, interest rates and the policy paralysis of the govt.
Good time to buy selectively with a time frame of 3 to 6 months for a decent appreciation.
Friday 3 June 2011
Friday 3 June
The market went up to 5608 and then sharply fell off to 5510 and closed @ 5525 (down 25).
Sensex 18495- 18650 - & closed @ 18385 down 108.
market has come down from the resistance of 5600 and has already testing the support around 5500.
Monday if the support of 5480 does not hold then we may see the next support level 5420.
in any case the upside seems limited - and the down side seems to be 5% to 10 %.
Sensex 18495- 18650 - & closed @ 18385 down 108.
market has come down from the resistance of 5600 and has already testing the support around 5500.
Monday if the support of 5480 does not hold then we may see the next support level 5420.
in any case the upside seems limited - and the down side seems to be 5% to 10 %.
Thursday 2 June 2011
Thursday 2 June
The market went down by around 0.6% today Nifty ended @ 5550 (down 41) and Sensex @ 18497 (down 111).
Considering the sell offs in US & Europe around 2% and in Asian Markets around 1.5% - the fall in Indian market seems pretty low.
However - the volume for the past few days has been much below average 90000cr against 100000+ crores usually.
If tomorrow the market goes below 5420 then one can expect a further fall of 1-2% till 5350.
This time if 5350 does not hold then - there is likely to be a free fall to 5200 levels next week.
Wait for the correction before buying in to this market.
Considering the sell offs in US & Europe around 2% and in Asian Markets around 1.5% - the fall in Indian market seems pretty low.
However - the volume for the past few days has been much below average 90000cr against 100000+ crores usually.
If tomorrow the market goes below 5420 then one can expect a further fall of 1-2% till 5350.
This time if 5350 does not hold then - there is likely to be a free fall to 5200 levels next week.
Wait for the correction before buying in to this market.
Wednesday 1 June 2011
Wednesday 1 June
Another positive day for the market today - the market closed @ 18615 (up 112) and Nifty @ 5592 (up 32).
Despite all the bad news around - GDP growth estimates revised downwards to 7.5% for FY 12; the confusion that seems to prevail in the Govt - and almost no proactive action by the govt to get things moving ; Europe still reeling under the Greek Banking crisis ; the public spat between the Govt and Civil Society (Anna Hazare) over the draft of the Lokpal Bill ; New Telecom scam involving another DMK minister (Maran & Sun TV) -
Ok the list is endless.
Good to see the market improving (across almost all good scrips). Wait & watch - no new buying - despite all the SMS that you receive from the brokers these days. Buy recommendations in the last few days has increased substantially - and many of them have resulted in profits - since the market for the past 4 days seems to be going one way only.
Despite all the bad news around - GDP growth estimates revised downwards to 7.5% for FY 12; the confusion that seems to prevail in the Govt - and almost no proactive action by the govt to get things moving ; Europe still reeling under the Greek Banking crisis ; the public spat between the Govt and Civil Society (Anna Hazare) over the draft of the Lokpal Bill ; New Telecom scam involving another DMK minister (Maran & Sun TV) -
Ok the list is endless.
Good to see the market improving (across almost all good scrips). Wait & watch - no new buying - despite all the SMS that you receive from the brokers these days. Buy recommendations in the last few days has increased substantially - and many of them have resulted in profits - since the market for the past 4 days seems to be going one way only.
Tuesday 31 May 2011
Tuesday 31 May
After a pause yesterday (with hardly any change from Friday levels of 5476 to 5473 (sensex 18266 to 18232)
today the market gained over 300 points sensex and Nifty 95 points nearly 1.7%.. Looks like the onset of monsoon on Kerala shores have enthused the market. Any a good monsoon is not going to bring down the prices overnight. Inflation for the next few months is likely to be around the 8 to 9% range .
Nifty closed @ 5561 -up 88 and Sensex @ 18508 - up 276. Almost near the high for the day.
Almost all shares participated in the rally - specially the Banks . Surprising considering that RBI is likely to raise the rates once again in June - may be this was already factored in the price crash last week.
Wait for the index to cross 5650 before taking any buying decision.
The market crashes down faster than the speed at which it goes up - wait for the 5650 levels and the global cues before getting very excited about the gains in the market index.
This month F&O - has 5 weeks for expiry - so I guess it could be a good idea to go in for some put options after the index crosses 5600 levels to protect your portfolio.
today the market gained over 300 points sensex and Nifty 95 points nearly 1.7%.. Looks like the onset of monsoon on Kerala shores have enthused the market. Any a good monsoon is not going to bring down the prices overnight. Inflation for the next few months is likely to be around the 8 to 9% range .
Nifty closed @ 5561 -up 88 and Sensex @ 18508 - up 276. Almost near the high for the day.
Almost all shares participated in the rally - specially the Banks . Surprising considering that RBI is likely to raise the rates once again in June - may be this was already factored in the price crash last week.
Wait for the index to cross 5650 before taking any buying decision.
The market crashes down faster than the speed at which it goes up - wait for the 5650 levels and the global cues before getting very excited about the gains in the market index.
This month F&O - has 5 weeks for expiry - so I guess it could be a good idea to go in for some put options after the index crosses 5600 levels to protect your portfolio.
Friday 27 May 2011
Friday 27 May
The market closed on a positive note with sensex @ 18275 (up 231) and Nifty @ 5476 (up 63).
Almost all shares participated in the up move. Notable exception was Tata Motors - which after announcing a not a bad result - went down by over 6% on analysts downgrades as well as the muted guidance given by the management for the next quarter.
Inflation is still up , the price increase in Diesel & LPG expected in the next 10 days and RBI likely to increase rate once again in June by .25%. So the move would be temporary - and one can invest now only for a very short term -say a week or so.
Almost all shares participated in the up move. Notable exception was Tata Motors - which after announcing a not a bad result - went down by over 6% on analysts downgrades as well as the muted guidance given by the management for the next quarter.
Inflation is still up , the price increase in Diesel & LPG expected in the next 10 days and RBI likely to increase rate once again in June by .25%. So the move would be temporary - and one can invest now only for a very short term -say a week or so.
Thursday 26 May 2011
Thursday 26 May FO expiry
Market retraced the loss of yesterday and closed above 18000 and 5400 Nifty.
Nifty @ 5412 (up 63) and Sensex @ 18044 (up 197).
But the trading was pretty lackluster - nothing happening except that it was May F&O expiry - so there were some stock specific actions for carry forward.
Reliance on the news of the freeing of gas prices for non core customers and TISCo after announcing the result - which included some one off write backs of provision made earlier and a better than expected result for European operations were both up by 2%.
Reliance likely to benefit from the above freeing of gas prices - only if it can ramp up its production .
Tisco - the price of gas to steel suppliers (as they are non core by Govt definition) are likely to go up and also the raw material prices are still rising - and Europe has its own set of problems of economic slowdowns.
Unless the major Banking stocks and the IT stocks start moving up - the market definitely headed lower towards 17600 levels 5300 Nifty levels.
Nifty @ 5412 (up 63) and Sensex @ 18044 (up 197).
But the trading was pretty lackluster - nothing happening except that it was May F&O expiry - so there were some stock specific actions for carry forward.
Reliance on the news of the freeing of gas prices for non core customers and TISCo after announcing the result - which included some one off write backs of provision made earlier and a better than expected result for European operations were both up by 2%.
Reliance likely to benefit from the above freeing of gas prices - only if it can ramp up its production .
Tisco - the price of gas to steel suppliers (as they are non core by Govt definition) are likely to go up and also the raw material prices are still rising - and Europe has its own set of problems of economic slowdowns.
Unless the major Banking stocks and the IT stocks start moving up - the market definitely headed lower towards 17600 levels 5300 Nifty levels.
Wednesday 25 May 2011
Wednesday 25 May
Not a very exciting day - the market went down steadily downhill by over 200 points (sensex) and Nifty by 60 points.
Market closed near the lows - Nifty @ 5349 (down 45) and Sensex @ 17838 (down 173).
The downside now seems to be not more than 2 or 3 % and the upside could be 8-10%.
SBI and ONGC now look good to buy @ 2280 and 260 resp. There can be further 3 to 5% downfall from here but this scrip looks for an appreciation of 20% in next 6 months.
Tomorrow - F&O expiry - can expect some unexpected movement - for now it seems that Nifty is headed for 5300.
Market closed near the lows - Nifty @ 5349 (down 45) and Sensex @ 17838 (down 173).
The downside now seems to be not more than 2 or 3 % and the upside could be 8-10%.
SBI and ONGC now look good to buy @ 2280 and 260 resp. There can be further 3 to 5% downfall from here but this scrip looks for an appreciation of 20% in next 6 months.
Tomorrow - F&O expiry - can expect some unexpected movement - for now it seems that Nifty is headed for 5300.
Tuesday 24 May 2011
Tuesday 24 May
Fairly a flat trading day.
Sensex 17970 - 18050 & Nifty 5380 -5420.
Closed near the lower end.
with two days left for May F&O expiry - Wednesday & Thursday sessions should be interesting.
The brokers seem to be betting on sub 5300 levels - have been recommending investors to buy the 5300 put @ Rs 7 - towards the close of session .
Sensex 17970 - 18050 & Nifty 5380 -5420.
Closed near the lower end.
with two days left for May F&O expiry - Wednesday & Thursday sessions should be interesting.
The brokers seem to be betting on sub 5300 levels - have been recommending investors to buy the 5300 put @ Rs 7 - towards the close of session .
Monday 23 May 2011
Monday 23 May
The market following the global cues was down near 2% today.
Nifty 5380 (down 105) and Sensex 17990 (down 360).
In general all counters were down - specially the bank stocks - down by over 2% in general.
Looks like the market is factoring in the expected rate increase by RBI in June .
The selling by FII continues - nobody seems to be confident .
If the support @ 5350 for Nifty breaks tomorrow - then we can expect the market to go much lower in the next few weeks .
Since there is only 3 days for F&O expiry - one can expect fair amount of volatility - the range now is 5250 to 5550.
Nifty 5380 (down 105) and Sensex 17990 (down 360).
In general all counters were down - specially the bank stocks - down by over 2% in general.
Looks like the market is factoring in the expected rate increase by RBI in June .
The selling by FII continues - nobody seems to be confident .
If the support @ 5350 for Nifty breaks tomorrow - then we can expect the market to go much lower in the next few weeks .
Since there is only 3 days for F&O expiry - one can expect fair amount of volatility - the range now is 5250 to 5550.
Wednesday 18 May 2011
Wednesday 18 May
Market closed @ 5420 (down 18) and Sensex @ 18084 (down 52).
SBI down 2.5% and Reliance was below 900 (down 2%).
seems heading for the 5350 / 17800 levels.
Buy SBI after further fall of 5 to 6% around 2250.
Reliance seems to be in some kind of denial - not able to explain the fall in gas output.
Wait for this explanation before buying this stock.
SBI down 2.5% and Reliance was below 900 (down 2%).
seems heading for the 5350 / 17800 levels.
Buy SBI after further fall of 5 to 6% around 2250.
Reliance seems to be in some kind of denial - not able to explain the fall in gas output.
Wait for this explanation before buying this stock.
Tuesday 17 May 2011
Tuesday 17 May
The market made a new Low - 5430 & closed @ 5440 (down 58) and Sensex closed 18142 (down 202).
Another 2r days of fall should take the market to around 5350 & sensex 17800.
This level would be good time to start buying stocks - in phases as the downside after this may be only around 2- 3% - whereas the upside could be over 10%.
Todays star performer was State Bank of India - which announced its Q4 results - Net Profit @ 21 crores against the previous yr Q4 of 1867 cr - down 99%. This was mostly due to higher provisioning against bad loans by 1097 crore (3284 cr against 2187 cr).
Well Mr Bhatt seems to have done well @ SBI - to leave the bank with probably the worst Q4 result in a decade. The share price went below 2,400 - down 8%.
Based on this SBI result - all the banks (specially the PSU) took a tumble - this week one can expect most of the PSU banks to tank a bit (may be a lot) more.
Looks like most of the banks are due for correction in price by around 10% from the current levels.
Another 2r days of fall should take the market to around 5350 & sensex 17800.
This level would be good time to start buying stocks - in phases as the downside after this may be only around 2- 3% - whereas the upside could be over 10%.
Todays star performer was State Bank of India - which announced its Q4 results - Net Profit @ 21 crores against the previous yr Q4 of 1867 cr - down 99%. This was mostly due to higher provisioning against bad loans by 1097 crore (3284 cr against 2187 cr).
Well Mr Bhatt seems to have done well @ SBI - to leave the bank with probably the worst Q4 result in a decade. The share price went below 2,400 - down 8%.
Based on this SBI result - all the banks (specially the PSU) took a tumble - this week one can expect most of the PSU banks to tank a bit (may be a lot) more.
Looks like most of the banks are due for correction in price by around 10% from the current levels.
Monday 16 May 2011
Monday 16 May
The market erased all the gains of Friday and closed - sensex 18336 (down 195) and Nifty 5495 (down 49).
If the support @ 5450 Nifty or 18200 sensex does not hold tomorrow - then the market is headed for another correction downwards of 3 to 4% .
If the support @ 5450 Nifty or 18200 sensex does not hold tomorrow - then the market is headed for another correction downwards of 3 to 4% .
Thursday 12 May 2011
Thursday 11 May
The market closed @ 5484 (down 80) and sensex @ 18345 (down 240).
Apparently the market for some strange reason was not impressed with the IPP (indl prodn ) of 7.3% for march 2011.
This was way higher than the analyst estimates of 3.7%. .
As soon as the figures were announced - the market after a slight knee jerk to 18600 - fell steadily to 18345.
The food inflation for April was also lower - @ 7.7 Vs 8.53% WoW - and the fall in crude prices to below $ 100 also did not have any effect.
As usual the weak global cues were cited as the reason for the fall . Oh yeah!
Any way - tomorrow the election results for TN/Kerala/WB and Assam will be announced and tomorrow being end of week AND Friday 13th - lets hope the market does not test the 5350 levels.
A good day to go on a long week end and forget the market.
Apparently the market for some strange reason was not impressed with the IPP (indl prodn ) of 7.3% for march 2011.
This was way higher than the analyst estimates of 3.7%. .
As soon as the figures were announced - the market after a slight knee jerk to 18600 - fell steadily to 18345.
The food inflation for April was also lower - @ 7.7 Vs 8.53% WoW - and the fall in crude prices to below $ 100 also did not have any effect.
As usual the weak global cues were cited as the reason for the fall . Oh yeah!
Any way - tomorrow the election results for TN/Kerala/WB and Assam will be announced and tomorrow being end of week AND Friday 13th - lets hope the market does not test the 5350 levels.
A good day to go on a long week end and forget the market.
Wednesday 11 May 2011
Wednesday 11 May
The market was in the range 5524 - 5575 closed 5566 up 20.
Sensex 18450 - 18600 closed 18568 up 55.
the market is struggling to cross the 5600 levels - and the upside seems capped @ 5640 and the downside @ 5350.
Sensex 18450 - 18600 closed 18568 up 55.
the market is struggling to cross the 5600 levels - and the upside seems capped @ 5640 and the downside @ 5350.
Tuesday 10 May 2011
Tuesday 10 may
The market was volatile : 5551-5590 - to 5515 to 5539 (down 11) intra day high low 75.
Sensex intra day high low 200 points 18528-18670 - 18470 and closed @ 18504 (down 24).
Seems the market is struggling to cross the 5620 or 18700 mark - once this is crossed - can expect further 1% rise to 5680 or 18900.
But it seems the downside @ 5450 (down 2% from 5540) seems more likely.
Upside seems capped @ 2% while downside of another 5% seems more likely.
Market to stay away from.
SKSMicro - after falling over 50% from 550 to 250 in the last one week - recovered 10% to 298.
One wonders whether all the FIIs , George Soros and Narayan Murthy who bought the shares @ IPO around 800 are still invested in this scrip?
Six months back @ the time of IPO, this scrip was touted as the next superman of Indian stock market ???
From the IPO price of 985 the stock has now fallen over 70% - & this issue was oversubscribed 14 times.
After the IPO the share price touched a peak of over Rs 1400 - so if you are holding this scrip after buying @ peak - you may probably have to wait another 10 years to get back your investment on this scrip.
There is a lesson to all investors in SKS scrip - once there is any internal feud between the management (as in this case between promoter and CEO) - one should get out of the scrip. At that time one could probably have recovered most of the investment.
Sensex intra day high low 200 points 18528-18670 - 18470 and closed @ 18504 (down 24).
Seems the market is struggling to cross the 5620 or 18700 mark - once this is crossed - can expect further 1% rise to 5680 or 18900.
But it seems the downside @ 5450 (down 2% from 5540) seems more likely.
Upside seems capped @ 2% while downside of another 5% seems more likely.
Market to stay away from.
SKSMicro - after falling over 50% from 550 to 250 in the last one week - recovered 10% to 298.
One wonders whether all the FIIs , George Soros and Narayan Murthy who bought the shares @ IPO around 800 are still invested in this scrip?
Six months back @ the time of IPO, this scrip was touted as the next superman of Indian stock market ???
From the IPO price of 985 the stock has now fallen over 70% - & this issue was oversubscribed 14 times.
After the IPO the share price touched a peak of over Rs 1400 - so if you are holding this scrip after buying @ peak - you may probably have to wait another 10 years to get back your investment on this scrip.
There is a lesson to all investors in SKS scrip - once there is any internal feud between the management (as in this case between promoter and CEO) - one should get out of the scrip. At that time one could probably have recovered most of the investment.
Monday 9 May 2011
Monday 9 May
Market closed flat for the day- after opening strong @ 5570 and then drifted lower to 5510 and closed practically unchanged @ 5548.
5570 - 5510 - 5548
& sensex 18600 - 18400 - 18529.
Tomorrows trading probably could throw some light on the next short term move.
5570 - 5510 - 5548
& sensex 18600 - 18400 - 18529.
Tomorrows trading probably could throw some light on the next short term move.
Friday 6 May 2011
Friday 6 May
The market closed around 1.5 % up for the day @ 18508 (up 298) and Nifty @ 5546 (up 86 ). the market closed almost near the top for the day.
For the week - the market closed 3.5% lower.
This week - silver was down 28% - Gold -5% and Crude around 10% so far.
Going forward - if the market consolidates around this level of 5500 - 5600 then we might see the market inching towards the 5680 level.
But with all the macro issues -inflation & interest rate and GDP number being revised by every economist who is given some face time on TV - market going up in the short term does look unlikely.
If the commodity prices continue to go down next week also -then there is no reason why the market can not rebound to 5650 next week.
For the week - the market closed 3.5% lower.
This week - silver was down 28% - Gold -5% and Crude around 10% so far.
Going forward - if the market consolidates around this level of 5500 - 5600 then we might see the market inching towards the 5680 level.
But with all the macro issues -inflation & interest rate and GDP number being revised by every economist who is given some face time on TV - market going up in the short term does look unlikely.
If the commodity prices continue to go down next week also -then there is no reason why the market can not rebound to 5650 next week.
Thursday 5 May 2011
Thursday 5 may
Another day - 9th day in a row where the market tanked big time. 9 consecutive days of fall - is definitely a new record - at least in the last 6 years.
Sensex closed @ 18190 (down 277) and Nifty @ 5453 (down 84).
So rally which started in February @ 5300 and sensex 17600 or there abouts seems to be over.
If there is no big bounce back in the next few days - and the index goes below 5200 - the long term trend will turn bearish.
Nifty is now way below the 100 dma , 200 dma and 20 Dma.
I am sure most fund managers would be wishing that they were on vacation now.
The ghost of 2008 - is it around the corner.
My personal take - the market would go for a 150 point correction upwards next week to around 5550 .
But then - the market does not respect wishful thinking. All macros - inflation, interest rate , political scenario , earnings projection for FY12 and GDP rate seem to be either negative or on the lower side.
Only good thing so far - liquidity still seems to be good and the panic has still not set in - as this correction of 1300 points sensex or 450 points Nifty is still termed by the TV experts as intermediate correction !
Sensex closed @ 18190 (down 277) and Nifty @ 5453 (down 84).
So rally which started in February @ 5300 and sensex 17600 or there abouts seems to be over.
If there is no big bounce back in the next few days - and the index goes below 5200 - the long term trend will turn bearish.
Nifty is now way below the 100 dma , 200 dma and 20 Dma.
I am sure most fund managers would be wishing that they were on vacation now.
The ghost of 2008 - is it around the corner.
My personal take - the market would go for a 150 point correction upwards next week to around 5550 .
But then - the market does not respect wishful thinking. All macros - inflation, interest rate , political scenario , earnings projection for FY12 and GDP rate seem to be either negative or on the lower side.
Only good thing so far - liquidity still seems to be good and the panic has still not set in - as this correction of 1300 points sensex or 450 points Nifty is still termed by the TV experts as intermediate correction !
Wednesday 4 May 2011
Wednesday 4th May
The market had a weak opening going down to 18400 (down 140 points) and in Nifty 5510 (down 55 points)
and then around midday recovered to 18560 and Nifty 5580.
Towards the close the market fell back towards the lows and finished @ 5531 (down 34) and sensex down 74 @ 18460.
Banks were the worst affected - most of the Banking stocks were down around 10 - 12% in the last 3 trading sessions - SBI/YES/ICICI/BOB - and almost all other PSU banks.
May seems to be an established Bearish month - last year the Nifty fell from 5278 to 4786 during the month - a fall of nearly 500 points (sensex around 1400 points).
In the last one week Nifty is down 270 points (from 5800 to 5530) and the sensex down nearly 700 points so far.
Also in the last 2 days Silver prices fell by nearly Rs 6,000/kg.
So if the past year is any guide then the market is heading towards 17500 sensex or Nifty 5250.
Or is this year going to be any different??
My personal opinion is that crude oil prices now around $ 110 would drift down by 10% to below $ 100 in the next few weeks and this would have some favorable effect on the inflation figure for May - and the market unlikely to go much lower - as the liquidity position is still good - though the sentiments are very negative.
Would I bet on my own opinion? - very unlikely,
and then around midday recovered to 18560 and Nifty 5580.
Towards the close the market fell back towards the lows and finished @ 5531 (down 34) and sensex down 74 @ 18460.
Banks were the worst affected - most of the Banking stocks were down around 10 - 12% in the last 3 trading sessions - SBI/YES/ICICI/BOB - and almost all other PSU banks.
May seems to be an established Bearish month - last year the Nifty fell from 5278 to 4786 during the month - a fall of nearly 500 points (sensex around 1400 points).
In the last one week Nifty is down 270 points (from 5800 to 5530) and the sensex down nearly 700 points so far.
Also in the last 2 days Silver prices fell by nearly Rs 6,000/kg.
So if the past year is any guide then the market is heading towards 17500 sensex or Nifty 5250.
Or is this year going to be any different??
My personal opinion is that crude oil prices now around $ 110 would drift down by 10% to below $ 100 in the next few weeks and this would have some favorable effect on the inflation figure for May - and the market unlikely to go much lower - as the liquidity position is still good - though the sentiments are very negative.
Would I bet on my own opinion? - very unlikely,
Tuesday 3 May 2011
Tuesday 3rd May
RBI announced its monetary policy - and raised the interest rates by 50 basis points. Though this was expected by the market - the guidance given by RBI that the growth rate for FY12 was likely to be 8% (against prev projections of 8.4%) and also that inflation was likely to remain high till September - really spooked the market and the index crashed - Nifty by 140 to 5569 and Sensex by 478 points to 18520.
The market seems to be now in a new low territory - there are no optimists now left in the market. The consensus (over 90%) of the analysts are predicting further fall of 3 - 4% from these levels.
Banking stocks were the worst hit - by 5- 15% in the past 4 trading sessions. Today other rate sensitive scrips Viz Auto and real estate companies also had a fall of over 3%. And the index heavy weight Reliance seems to be going nowhere - with each day talk about how less gas they are likely to produce in FY12.
All in all - it seems to be a good month to close shop and go on a vacation. The only major trigger for the market could be the election results - due after 10 days and the expected fall in crude prices to $ 100 by the end of next month (wishful thinking).
The market seems to be now in a new low territory - there are no optimists now left in the market. The consensus (over 90%) of the analysts are predicting further fall of 3 - 4% from these levels.
Banking stocks were the worst hit - by 5- 15% in the past 4 trading sessions. Today other rate sensitive scrips Viz Auto and real estate companies also had a fall of over 3%. And the index heavy weight Reliance seems to be going nowhere - with each day talk about how less gas they are likely to produce in FY12.
All in all - it seems to be a good month to close shop and go on a vacation. The only major trigger for the market could be the election results - due after 10 days and the expected fall in crude prices to $ 100 by the end of next month (wishful thinking).
Friday 29 April 2011
Friday 29,April
The market again ended down for the day and the week - for the week down 2.5% and for the day the sensex closed @ 19130 (down 160) and Nifty @ 5750 (down 35) - but the lowest for the day was 19060 and 5720.
The market went below the 20 dma /200 dma - but bounced back marginally on the positive side.
So there is a possibility of a bounce from here .
But however- the Market seems to have decisively broken out on the lower side - if this is confirmed by Monday and Tuesday action - then we are in the midst of a bear market.
On May 3rd (Tuesday) RBI in its meeting may announce further increase in the CRR rate by 25 basis points, as the inflation still remains on the higher side @ around 10%.
The market went below the 20 dma /200 dma - but bounced back marginally on the positive side.
So there is a possibility of a bounce from here .
But however- the Market seems to have decisively broken out on the lower side - if this is confirmed by Monday and Tuesday action - then we are in the midst of a bear market.
On May 3rd (Tuesday) RBI in its meeting may announce further increase in the CRR rate by 25 basis points, as the inflation still remains on the higher side @ around 10%.
Thursday 28 April 2011
Thursday 28 April
The market closed weak @ 5783 nifty (down 50) and Sensex 19285 (down 160).
F&O expiry at almost the same as 31 march 5833 .
ICICI net up 44% - the stock however closed only marginally up @ 1117. BOB despite the result being as per expectation was down nearly 5% @ 940.
Reliance down nearly 2% and most of the banks were generally weak.
Market seems headed decisively for the lower end @ 5750 - any break below this would be the end of the uptrend seen in the past 2 months .
F&O expiry at almost the same as 31 march 5833 .
ICICI net up 44% - the stock however closed only marginally up @ 1117. BOB despite the result being as per expectation was down nearly 5% @ 940.
Reliance down nearly 2% and most of the banks were generally weak.
Market seems headed decisively for the lower end @ 5750 - any break below this would be the end of the uptrend seen in the past 2 months .
Wednesday 27 April 2011
Wednesday 27,April
The market opened higher @ 19600 (up 80) Nifty 5884 (up 20) and then gradually drifted lower to 19400 (down 140) Nifty 5815 (down 50) - before closing for the day @ near the lows 19445 (down 102) 5831 nifty (down 37).
Tomorrow being the F&O expiry day - there should be bit of volatility. But 5750 - 5900 seems to be the range for next few days.
Wipro results were as per expectations -Net up 14% . But apparently the market does not prefer such expected results and probably was looking for some surprise on the higherside. The q1 guidance by Wipro was cautious - may be that was the reason the share was down 3% @ 448. Wipro would be a good buy for longterm if the price were to go down further 10% to around 400 - 405.
Tomorrow - plenty of results : ICICI/BOB/ LIChsg/ Biocon/Polaris/Vijayabank ?? and F&O expiry ?? should be interesting.
Tomorrow being the F&O expiry day - there should be bit of volatility. But 5750 - 5900 seems to be the range for next few days.
Wipro results were as per expectations -Net up 14% . But apparently the market does not prefer such expected results and probably was looking for some surprise on the higherside. The q1 guidance by Wipro was cautious - may be that was the reason the share was down 3% @ 448. Wipro would be a good buy for longterm if the price were to go down further 10% to around 400 - 405.
Tomorrow - plenty of results : ICICI/BOB/ LIChsg/ Biocon/Polaris/Vijayabank ?? and F&O expiry ?? should be interesting.
Tuesday 26 April 2011
tuesday 26, April
The market went thru a perfect V .
Thru the day the market went down from 19580 to 19360 and reversed and closed @ 19522 (down 62)
Nifty : 5890 to 5790 and then closed @ 5864 (down 10).
Apparently the range seems to be 5800 -5900 (nifty ) & 19650 - 19300 (sensex).
Or broadly 5750 - 5950 or 19100 - 19700.
F & O Expiry on Thursday could be higher @ 5950 or near the low @ 5750.
the market trend likely to be established only after the market breaks this range - either 5750 on the lower side or 5950 on the higher side.
Tomorrow will see the results for Wipro & Castrol. so can expect some unexpected movements in these two scrips.
Thru the day the market went down from 19580 to 19360 and reversed and closed @ 19522 (down 62)
Nifty : 5890 to 5790 and then closed @ 5864 (down 10).
Apparently the range seems to be 5800 -5900 (nifty ) & 19650 - 19300 (sensex).
Or broadly 5750 - 5950 or 19100 - 19700.
F & O Expiry on Thursday could be higher @ 5950 or near the low @ 5750.
the market trend likely to be established only after the market breaks this range - either 5750 on the lower side or 5950 on the higher side.
Tomorrow will see the results for Wipro & Castrol. so can expect some unexpected movements in these two scrips.
Thursday 21 April 2011
Thursday 21,April
The market opened higher by 100 points sensex and 30 Nifty in correlation with the other world markets.
Thru the day the it moved in a very narrow groove - and finished @ 19573 (up 102 points) and Nifty 5880 (up 28 points).
Once again the market failed to decisively cross 5900 and just stayed a bit shy of the level, However , its for the third consecutive day the market has closed on a positive note.
TCS results were as per the expectations - but the share price was down 2% on close - more on the expectation of the analysts downgrade of earnings for FY12 during the next few days.
Reliance results should be available after the trading hours and the stock was up nearly 2% @ 1040.
Have to now wait & see the market reaction on Monday after the results get analysed and re analysed by the TV experts!
Next week Thursday 28th is F&O expiry - so the market seems to be all set for the 6000 Nifty or is it 5750 levels.??
Thru the day the it moved in a very narrow groove - and finished @ 19573 (up 102 points) and Nifty 5880 (up 28 points).
Once again the market failed to decisively cross 5900 and just stayed a bit shy of the level, However , its for the third consecutive day the market has closed on a positive note.
TCS results were as per the expectations - but the share price was down 2% on close - more on the expectation of the analysts downgrade of earnings for FY12 during the next few days.
Reliance results should be available after the trading hours and the stock was up nearly 2% @ 1040.
Have to now wait & see the market reaction on Monday after the results get analysed and re analysed by the TV experts!
Next week Thursday 28th is F&O expiry - so the market seems to be all set for the 6000 Nifty or is it 5750 levels.??
Wednesday 20 April 2011
Wednesday 20,April
The market closed nearly 2% up Sensex @ 19470 & Nifty @ 5851 - the market opened 100 points up @ 19250 and traded in the range of 19200 - 19500 Nifty range 5765-5865. closing near the top of the range.
The apparent trigger seem to the world market which also rallied 1.5% to 2%
It seems Nifty has settled on a broad range of 5650 - 5950 (sensex 19000-19600).
Tomorrow being the last day of trading before easter break - market once again likely to test the 5920-50 and if it crosses decisively then can expect further move next week to 6000-6050.
But in the last 10 days Nifty has touched around 5920 - 2 times and sharply fallen back to 5750 levels.
Tomorrows results - Reliance and TCS - TCS rallied by over 4% today discounting the expected earnings- so unless they come out with some overly fantastic results - the prices are likely to fall .
reliance on the other hand has been besieged with so many bad news (regarding gas production) that the rally in this scrip could be very sharp if the earnings beat the analysts estimates. This could trigger the market to reach the 6000 levels.
With the macro indicators - inflation @ 9% - interest rates likely to move up further 25 basis points and the overall earnings downgrade for 2012 - its time to sell on rallies. But caution needs to be exercised as the F&O expiry is on 28 April - and also by then most of the major results would be in .
It seems Markets in May is heading for a major fall .
The apparent trigger seem to the world market which also rallied 1.5% to 2%
It seems Nifty has settled on a broad range of 5650 - 5950 (sensex 19000-19600).
Tomorrow being the last day of trading before easter break - market once again likely to test the 5920-50 and if it crosses decisively then can expect further move next week to 6000-6050.
But in the last 10 days Nifty has touched around 5920 - 2 times and sharply fallen back to 5750 levels.
Tomorrows results - Reliance and TCS - TCS rallied by over 4% today discounting the expected earnings- so unless they come out with some overly fantastic results - the prices are likely to fall .
reliance on the other hand has been besieged with so many bad news (regarding gas production) that the rally in this scrip could be very sharp if the earnings beat the analysts estimates. This could trigger the market to reach the 6000 levels.
With the macro indicators - inflation @ 9% - interest rates likely to move up further 25 basis points and the overall earnings downgrade for 2012 - its time to sell on rallies. But caution needs to be exercised as the F&O expiry is on 28 April - and also by then most of the major results would be in .
It seems Markets in May is heading for a major fall .
Tuesday 19 April 2011
april 19, tuesday
The market closed 19125 sensex up 34 and Nifty @ 5744 up 15.
But the range was around 19070-19140 & 5720 - 5750 thru the day.
But the way in which Nifty /Sensex struggled to be in the positive - gives an indication that the market is likely to trend lower in the coming days.
As per the IMD forecast the monsoon this year is expected to be normal @ 98% .
Results from Yes Bank 20/4 ; Reliance & TCS on 21/4 and Axis bank on 22/4 are the next triggers to the market.
But the range was around 19070-19140 & 5720 - 5750 thru the day.
But the way in which Nifty /Sensex struggled to be in the positive - gives an indication that the market is likely to trend lower in the coming days.
As per the IMD forecast the monsoon this year is expected to be normal @ 98% .
Results from Yes Bank 20/4 ; Reliance & TCS on 21/4 and Axis bank on 22/4 are the next triggers to the market.
Monday 18 April 2011
Monday 18 April
Yes another of those inexplicable movement today.
Today the t sensex opened @ 19360 and till 11 30 went steadily up by 250 points to 19610 the in 30 minutes between 11. 30 and 12 noon the market crashed to 19260 and by the end of the day closed at 19091.
So between High of 19610 and the close of 19091 - a total 519 point change
The market is very volatile - and is not easy to get a entry point for profitable trading. Once some kind of trend is established then only it would be right to really trade in this market. Otherwise its too risky.
IFCI posted the result today - around 3% lower YoY. This had negative impact on all the Banking stocks .
But after the close of the market session today HDFCBANK has announced a fantastic earnings - q4 net up by 33% @ 1115 crores. This beats the estimate by a very large margin . But HDFCBANK had closed today @ 2311 down 2.2%. So there should be plenty of shorts getting covered tomorrow.
This result may lead to other Banking stock prices to go up - hopefully.
So can expect the market to trade up tomorrow - atleast the first one hour ???
Saturday 16 April 2011
week 18-21 April
The sensex closed on Friday @ 19386 - down 65 points and the Nifty @ 5824 - down 18 points.
This week had two trading holidays (tuesday & thursday) . The apparent trigger for the market to crash by over 300 points in Sensex on Friday was the disappointment over Infosys results. The earnings were below market expectations . Also the resignation of two directors ( Mohandas Pai & Dinesh) did not help the sentiment.
The share price of Infosys were down by over 10% on Friday - & as Infosys is a trend-setter for the expected results from other IT companies - price of other IT companies including TCS & Wipro also fell 2% - 5%.
The Inflation figure for March WPI @ 8.98 announced on Friday is way above the projvetion by RBI of 8%.
Next week - the market likely to trade in the range of 5750-5850 with a negative bias and select stocks whose Q4 earnings are expected next week may be in the limelight.
On Monday IFCI & HDFCBank are likely to announce their Q4 results. This might lead to some stock specific movements in ICICI/HDFC/Axis /Yes/IDBI/IDFC.
This week had two trading holidays (tuesday & thursday) . The apparent trigger for the market to crash by over 300 points in Sensex on Friday was the disappointment over Infosys results. The earnings were below market expectations . Also the resignation of two directors ( Mohandas Pai & Dinesh) did not help the sentiment.
The share price of Infosys were down by over 10% on Friday - & as Infosys is a trend-setter for the expected results from other IT companies - price of other IT companies including TCS & Wipro also fell 2% - 5%.
The Inflation figure for March WPI @ 8.98 announced on Friday is way above the projvetion by RBI of 8%.
Next week - the market likely to trade in the range of 5750-5850 with a negative bias and select stocks whose Q4 earnings are expected next week may be in the limelight.
On Monday IFCI & HDFCBank are likely to announce their Q4 results. This might lead to some stock specific movements in ICICI/HDFC/Axis /Yes/IDBI/IDFC.
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