Friday 29,April

The market again ended down for the day and the week - for the week down 2.5% and for the day the sensex closed @ 19130 (down 160) and Nifty @ 5750 (down 35) - but the lowest for the day was 19060 and 5720.

The market went below the 20 dma /200 dma - but bounced back marginally on the positive side.
So there is a possibility of a bounce from here .

But however- the Market seems to have decisively broken out on the lower side - if this is confirmed by Monday and Tuesday action - then we are in the midst of a bear market.

On May 3rd (Tuesday) RBI in its meeting may announce further increase in the CRR rate by 25 basis points, as the inflation still remains on the higher side @ around 10%.

Thursday 28 April

The market closed weak @ 5783 nifty (down 50) and Sensex 19285 (down 160).
F&O expiry at almost the same as 31 march 5833 .

ICICI net up 44% - the stock however closed only marginally up @ 1117. BOB despite the result being as per expectation was down nearly 5% @ 940.

Reliance down nearly 2% and most of the banks were generally weak.

Market seems headed decisively for the lower end @ 5750 - any break below this would be the end of the uptrend seen in the past 2 months .

Wednesday 27,April

The market opened higher @ 19600 (up 80) Nifty 5884 (up 20) and then gradually drifted lower to 19400 (down 140) Nifty 5815 (down 50) - before closing for the day @ near the lows 19445 (down 102) 5831 nifty (down 37).

Tomorrow being the F&O expiry day - there should be bit of volatility. But 5750 - 5900 seems to be the range for next few days.

Wipro results were as per expectations -Net up 14% . But apparently the market does not prefer such expected results and probably was looking for some surprise on the higherside. The q1 guidance by Wipro was cautious - may be that was the reason the share was down 3%  @ 448.  Wipro would be a good buy for longterm if the price were to go down further 10% to around 400 - 405.

Tomorrow - plenty of results : ICICI/BOB/ LIChsg/ Biocon/Polaris/Vijayabank ??  and F&O expiry ?? should be interesting.

tuesday 26, April

The market went thru a perfect  V .

Thru the day the market went down from 19580 to 19360 and reversed and closed @ 19522 (down 62)
Nifty : 5890 to 5790 and then closed @ 5864 (down 10).

Apparently the range seems to be 5800 -5900 (nifty ) & 19650 - 19300 (sensex).

Or broadly 5750 - 5950  or 19100 - 19700.

F & O Expiry on Thursday could be higher @ 5950 or near the low @ 5750.

the market trend likely to be established only after the market breaks this range - either 5750 on the lower side or 5950 on the higher side.

Tomorrow will see the results for Wipro & Castrol.  so can expect some unexpected movements in these two scrips.

Thursday 21,April

The market opened higher by 100 points sensex and 30 Nifty in correlation with the other world markets.

Thru the day the it moved in a very narrow groove - and finished @ 19573 (up 102 points) and Nifty 5880 (up 28 points).

Once again the market failed to decisively cross 5900 and just stayed a bit shy of the level, However , its for the third consecutive day the market has closed on a positive note.

TCS results were as per the expectations - but the share price was down 2% on close - more on the expectation of the analysts downgrade of earnings for FY12 during the next few days.

Reliance results should be available after the trading hours and the stock was up nearly 2% @ 1040.
Have to now wait & see the market reaction on Monday after the results get analysed and re analysed by the TV experts!

Next week Thursday 28th is F&O expiry - so the market seems to be all set for the 6000 Nifty or is it 5750 levels.??

Wednesday 20,April

The market closed nearly 2% up Sensex @ 19470 & Nifty @ 5851 - the market opened 100 points up @ 19250 and traded in the range of 19200 - 19500 Nifty range 5765-5865. closing near the top of the range.

The apparent trigger seem to the world market which also rallied 1.5% to 2%

It seems Nifty has settled on a broad range of 5650 - 5950 (sensex 19000-19600).

Tomorrow being the last day of trading before easter break  - market once again likely to test the 5920-50 and if it crosses decisively then can expect further move next week to 6000-6050.

But in the last 10 days Nifty has touched around 5920 - 2 times and sharply fallen back to 5750 levels.

Tomorrows results - Reliance and TCS - TCS rallied by over 4% today discounting the expected earnings- so unless they come out with some overly fantastic results - the prices are likely to fall .

reliance on the other hand has been besieged with so many bad news (regarding gas production) that the rally in this scrip could be very sharp if the earnings beat the analysts estimates. This could trigger the market to reach the 6000 levels.

With the macro indicators - inflation @ 9% - interest rates likely to move up further 25 basis points and the overall earnings downgrade for 2012 - its time to sell on rallies. But caution needs to be exercised as the F&O expiry is on 28 April - and also by then most of the major results would be in .
It seems Markets in May is heading for a major fall .

april 19, tuesday

The market closed 19125 sensex up 34 and Nifty @ 5744 up 15.

But the range was around 19070-19140 & 5720 - 5750 thru the day.

But the way in which Nifty /Sensex struggled to be in the positive - gives an indication that the market is likely to trend lower in the coming days.

As per the IMD forecast the monsoon this year is expected to be normal @ 98% .

Results from Yes Bank 20/4 ; Reliance & TCS on 21/4 and Axis bank on 22/4 are the next triggers to the market.

Monday 18 April

Yes another of those inexplicable movement today.

Today the t sensex opened @ 19360 and till 11 30 went steadily up by 250 points  to 19610 the in 30 minutes between 11. 30 and 12 noon  the market crashed to 19260 and by the end of the day closed at 19091. 

So between High of 19610 and the close of 19091 -  a total 519 point change

The market is very volatile - and is not easy to get a entry point for profitable trading. Once some kind of trend is established then only it would be right to really trade in this market. Otherwise its too risky.

IFCI posted the result today - around 3% lower YoY.  This had negative impact on all the Banking stocks .

But after the close of the market session today HDFCBANK has announced a fantastic earnings - q4 net up by 33% @ 1115 crores. This beats the estimate by a very large margin . But HDFCBANK had closed today @ 2311 down 2.2%. So there should be plenty of shorts getting covered tomorrow.

This result may lead to other Banking stock prices to go up -  hopefully. 

So can expect the market to trade up tomorrow - atleast the first one hour ???

week 18-21 April

The sensex  closed on Friday  @ 19386 - down 65 points and the Nifty @ 5824 - down 18 points.
This week had two trading holidays (tuesday & thursday) . The apparent trigger  for the market to crash by over 300 points in Sensex on Friday was the disappointment over Infosys results. The earnings were below market expectations . Also the resignation of  two directors ( Mohandas Pai & Dinesh) did not help the sentiment.

The share price of  Infosys were down by over 10% on Friday - & as Infosys is a trend-setter for the expected results from other IT companies - price of other IT companies including TCS & Wipro  also fell 2% - 5%.

The Inflation figure for March WPI @ 8.98 announced on Friday is way above the projvetion by RBI of 8%.

Next week - the market likely to trade in the range of 5750-5850 with a negative bias and select stocks whose Q4 earnings are expected next week may be in the limelight.

On Monday IFCI & HDFCBank are likely to announce their Q4 results. This might lead to some stock specific movements in ICICI/HDFC/Axis /Yes/IDBI/IDFC.